OBK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Origin Bancorp is currently going through a growth phase with a strong focus on recruiting and expanding their team in key markets, such as Texas. With plans for mid-to-high single digit loan and deposit growth, and a NIM range of 3.70%-3.80%, the company is poised for continued success in the coming years. They have also shown stability in asset quality metrics and strong net interest income growth, indicating a solid financial foundation for future profitability. However, potential risks to consider include economic deterioration in their core markets and competitive pressure on loan pricing, as well as risks related to their M&A activity.

Origin Bancorp is likely to continue its capital return through buybacks and a potential dividend increase, with strong capital ratios expected to be maintained by 2025. Despite a reported 4Q25 Core/GAAP EPS that beat estimates, there may be pressure on early 2026 EPS due to payroll seasonality and near-term NIM contraction. However, expectations are for management to remain focused on recruiting for long-term growth, leading to a maintained BUY rating and a raised PT of $49 representing a 12.5x multiple on 2026E and recognition of the company's notable, growing presence in Texas. Non-core fee income has declined, primarily due to lower activity and swap fees.